Ukraine

The Russian incursion into Ukraine is instructive on a couple of different levels.  As an adherent of George Santayana, this proves his maxim once again.  Anyone with a sense of history recognizes this as the same sort of pretext that Hitler used to invade the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia in 1938.  Vladimir Putin has trumped President Obama again and made him this century's Neville Chamberlain.

President Obama is correct:  Russia is violating international law, national sovereignty and is doing so on the wrong side of history.  In that, Mr. Obama is correct.  Russia's convoluted justification for entering Ukrainian territory meets none of the requirements for justification.  The problem is that now that it's done, what can be done to undo it?

Sadly, precious little.  The United States is stretched too thin militarily.  Even if it weren't, Russia would have far better interior lines from which to counter any move the US might make.  The EU?  Please.  They can't agree on anything, much less military action.  And with the potential consequences of a failed reply to the Russian incursion staring them in the face, the Euros lack the testicular fortitude to do anything militarily...not that it would do much good.  Even if all of Euroland's militaries participated, it wouldn't be able to dislodge Russia from the Crimea.  China?  It values Russia's oil and natural gas reserves too much.  Besides, China's focused on the Pacific, not Europe, and with the United States focused on Ukraine, it provides the necessary distraction from any action China might take in the East.

Almost by default, that leaves the US as the only viable deterrent to Russia, and that's in theory only. Realistically, there's no one available.  And don't even suggest the impotent and corrupt UN.  What are some blue helmeted troops from Kenya and Norway going to do to deter Putin?

The problem is, beside the obvious logistical nightmare, the US has shot its bolt already on Syria.  By evoking the imaginary line in the sand and then cowering behind legalese, the US lost the moral imperative that it used to own.  What's more, it showed that it has no concept of how to play game of foreign policy chess.  If a bluff is to be made, it has to be backed up by instances showing the consequences of calling the bluff.  With Libya and Syria as sterling examples of the weakness of American foreign policy, Putin had nothing to lose.  At worst, he looks bad, which matters not to him.  At best, he's begun the annexation of Ukraine, and there's no one there to stop him.

It's not as if the Americans are alone looking silly.  The Euros are repeating the errors they committed in 1938 and 1939 by not standing up to Hitler when he annexed the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia and the invasion of Poland.  In both cases, ruses were used to justify the German movements.  Here, the same thing is being done when in reality Putin seeks to prop up a politician who is favorable for Moscow.  Ukraine has expressed its desire to join the European Union, but this represented a threatening encroachment to Putin, whose chosen puppet in Ukraine, Yanukovich, rejected such ties.  Had the Euros acted more forcefully and accepted Ukraine's bid to join the EU, things might be different.  But now, it won't even stand up to Putin. Why? For the same reason China's sitting on the sidelines benefitting from doing nothing in this showdown: Oil and gas.

If in fact Ukraine wants to join the EU, the Euros ought to be more active in confronting Putin.  It's not as if it hasn't seen this movie before.  But given the present ostrich climate, I doubt European resolve to do anything sterner than issue sanctions that will be undercut in short order.  President Obama will huff and puff, but Russia won't back down.  The Chinese will laugh inscrutably but knowingly at all of it as it pursues its expansionist aims in the Pacific.

Mr. Obama is chillingly close to reprising Jimmy Carter's presidency in terms of foreign policy ineptitude.  He has weakened this country through his application of community organizer principles to real world situations. The problem for him, and by extension Americans across the country, is that it puts us in jeopardy of not only losing respect in the world, but emboldening our enemies, whether they belong to an organized state or a splinter organization hellbent on our destruction.

There is one lesson that isn't in the community organization handbook:  Thugs and terrorists only understand power.  It's the universal truth that transcends languages, cultures and traditions.  The United States still is the most powerful nation on earth.  But that power is no good unless it's used.

Meanwhile, Euroland is still dickering over the proper definition of power and doesn't want anyone to be offended.

Reagan and Churchill must be spinning in their graves.

(c) 2014 The Truxton Spangler Chronicles